http://www.bestmindsinc.com/ Best Minds Inc. Copyright 2006 Best Minds Inc. en-us Fri, 20 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_TheLostArtOfBeingEarly_March22_13.pdf As I write this article, on Friday, March 22, 2013, the EXPERIENCE of prices in US equities only builds more confidence in taking on MORE risk, not LESS. I mean, with the banks loaning money like crazy to speculate on higher and higher prices, what could possibly go wrong, right? Friday, 22 Mar 2013 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_TheLostArtOfBeingEarly_March22_13.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhenEveryoneSees_BMI.Jan23.13.pdf It would appear that the age of image is coming to an end and the age of character through pain is rising. The rally periods are getting shorter, and the problems from supporting MORE speculation by central bankers continue to mount. Soon, the can will refuse to be kicked any further down the road. Wednesday, 23 Jan 2013 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhenEveryoneSees_BMI.Jan23.13.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_UnlimitedMeansLimited_Dec15.12.pdf Are these men liars or fools or both? What is it that keeps the public in denial that as John Mauldin comments from his own book, "There are no good endings once you start down a deleveraging path." Do they or we really believe in the "unlimited Santa." Friday, 14 Dec 2012 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_UnlimitedMeansLimited_Dec15.12.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_SellTheAnnouncement_Nov7.12.pdf Over the last year, we have read very dire headlines, while watching markets RISE right into "the announcement". The result appears to have given the public the idea that without constant intervention from central bankers, our lives would not continue as "normal". What can be learned from the political side of this market noise? Wednesday, 7 Nov 2012 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_SellTheAnnouncement_Nov7.12.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PowderKegs_and_PhotoOps_Sept19.12.BMI.pdf "When people are not thinking about how something is provided for their benefit - just expecting it to continue - they come to the conclusion that somebody else is going to take care of them." Dr. Janice Dorn, from her interview for the Dec '06 issue of The Investor's Mind. Her comments are even more pertinent today, after the recent central banker's "all in" debt scheme announcements. Wednesday, 19 Sept 2012 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PowderKegs_and_PhotoOps_Sept19.12.BMI.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooCalm_Strength.or.Seduction_June15.12.pdf The Dow closed today 4.2% lower than its 38 month high on May 1st. To avoid so many negative world events taking place, does this continued bullishness show the Dow's great strength, or seductive nature to delude. Friday, 15 June 2012 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooCalm_Strength.or.Seduction_June15.12.pdf Doug Wakefield http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_ForgettingthePast_316.12.pdf Life is good. Today, Apple's new Ipad went on sale, and yesterday, March 15th, its stock topped $600 a share. The company's market size is larger than the entire US retail sector. There is even talk of the company reaching $1 trillion in market size, after reaching the half a trillion mark on February 29th. Yet, something appears wrong with this story of "unlimited wealth". Something seems familiar about this story from our past. The headlines today, read like ones I have read before. Friday, 16 March 2012 12:00:00 EDT http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_ForgettingthePast_316.12.pdf Doug Wakefield http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_MakingOurLivesStable.March2.12.pdf It is obvious from examining the charts above (in the article), that increasing debt and lot's of it, has been the long-term objective of central bankers the world over. To state "central bankers seeking stability" is an oxymoron. Friday, 2 March 2012 12:00:00 EDT http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMI_MakingOurLivesStable.March2.12.pdf Doug Wakefield http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/ComingOffAHigh_Jan20.12.pdf After living through two bubbles, fueled by cheap credit, we are afraid to admit that our entire society is once again caught up in a third credit bubble, and this too, like all before it, will end very, very badly. Our markets have become the place for "financial flippers" (remember the condo flippers) who are addicted to central planning schemes, never considering what it will be like when we come off "the high". Like a drug addict, we all know there will very painful side effects. Friday, 20 January 2012 12:00:00 EDT http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/ComingOffAHigh_Jan20.12.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/DarwinsDeceptive_DangerousDevices.Oct2611.pdf When we read news headlines that state that investors bought or sold certain markets for some specific reason explained in a news article, and yet the majority of the trades on the largest exchanges in the world are electronic and can react to changes almost instantaneously, are we really watching a crowd of investors reacting to the latest news, or computers reacting to changing math patterns? To understand, one must understand the evolution of capital markets in the last decade and the role of high frequency trading. Thursday, 27 October 2011 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/DarwinsDeceptive_DangerousDevices.Oct2611.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PeelingOnions_PublicArticle_Sept21.2011.pdf Like peeling onions, we are watching events today that have, and will, set up millions for that "burning sensation" with their financial capital, and why there is a desire to avoid peeling back any more layers of the onion. "The influence of these business leaders was so great that the Morgan and Rockefeller groups acting together, or even Morgan acting alone could have wrecked the economic system of the country merely by throwing securities on the stock market for sale, and having precipitated a stock market panic, could then have bought back the securities they had sold at a lower price. Naturally, they were not so foolish as to do this, although Morgan came very close to it in precipitating the "panic of 1907", but they did not hesitate to wreck individual corporations, at the expense of the holders of common stocks, by driving them to bankruptcy" Dr. Carrol Quigley, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World In Our Time (1966) Wednesday, 21 September 2011 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PeelingOnions_PublicArticle_Sept21.2011.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/GalleryofCrowdBehavior..Again_May2.1011.htm "In a market that is in a stage of old age; it is particularly important to be attuned to symptoms of a potential end to the current trend. To use the life insurance analogy, most people who become involved in the stock market don't know the difference between a twenty-year old and an eighty-year-old." Trader Victor Sperandeo. If we compare the final 31 trading days before the Dow topped in 2000 and 2007, to the 31 days after March 16 ,'11, we find some extremely important parallels. When added to the current juncture of the largest currency pair trade in the world, the stakes become even higher for every investor, advisor, and trader. Monday, 2 May 2011 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/GalleryofCrowdBehavior..Again_May2.1011.htm Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMIWebsite_RememberthePast.RemembertheWolf_Apr811.pdf "The so-called 'surprises' of history have emerged not because other countries did not have information, but because they refued to believe it." (pg 919) Carroll Quigley, Tragedy and Hope: A History of the World in Our Time (1966) A further examination of crowds and credit in history with charts of market collapses from the last 11 years. Friday, 8 April 2011 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BMIWebsite_RememberthePast.RemembertheWolf_Apr811.pdf Doug Wakefield http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/JohnsEconomicWorldview_Sept1610_000.pdf Today, we are faced with a period of unprecedented change. The scope of these changes requires each of us to ask the question, "What is my own wordview?", and to learn about other worldviews. This requires a level of reflection we are seldom asked to explore in today's fast paced financial world. It is my hope that each individual reading this article will glean new ideas, and grasp the critical importance of learning from other periods in history similar to our own. Thursday, 16 September 2010 12:00:00 EDT http://bestmindsinc.com/documents/JohnsEconomicWorldview_Sept1610_000.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheEfficientWealthTransfer_Aug11.10.pdf One of the most widely taught theories in the financial world over the last few decades, has been the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. This theory, is totally incompatible with the financial history, which reveals that our markets have been moving at an ever faster pace, where the big get even bigger and gain even more influence over the lives of the millions who depend on them worldwide. Wednesday, 1 August 2010 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheEfficientWealthTransfer_Aug11.10.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ASimplebutPainfulLesson_4.30.10.pdf Our lives, like our market commentary, are being lived out on a week by week basis. What could previous generations tell us about their credit bubbles, and the price changes they watched unfold in just two generations? What could these lessons, as well as a long history of our national debt before and after the "stability" of our money was placed in the hands of the Federal Reserve? If you are ready to move away from the short term perspective, as well as learn from another time in American history, your thinking will be challenged by this piece. Friday, 30 April 2010 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ASimplebutPainfulLesson_4.30.10.pdf Doug Wakefield http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WeAreAllSpeculatorsNow.pdf It all seems to come down to one question, about which many of us may have deluded ourselves: "Does the public invest in the financial markets, reflecting their beliefs about our collective futures, or are we all really speculators, looking for the big payout, regardless of the words we sign off on before handing our money over to be managed?" Friday, 17 February 2010 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WeAreAllSpeculatorsNow.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooCostlyToBear_Public_Feb510.pdf "I have often stopped to ponder our human condition - specifically, our uncanny ability to dismiss the seriousness of an event beforehand and to lament our lack of preparation after it has happened. In some form or fashion, how many New Orleans residents stated that they never expected the storm to break the levees? It's easy to look back, after an event, and wonder why people didn't heed the warnings. But don't we act similarly every day? Still, history is replete with examples of ignored warnings before cataclysmically destructive events. Be it the passengers on the Titanic or the investors in 1929, unheeded warnings combined with ignorance to produce tragedy." Friday, 05 February 2010 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooCostlyToBear_Public_Feb510.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/UnfinishedBusiness.pdf "Since the 19th, equity markets have dropped sharply and then went sideways. For this reason, I thought we it would be beneficial to examine various events that have taken place since last March, to see what light can be shed on markets for 2010." Friday, 29 January 2010 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/UnfinishedBusiness.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FinancialLessonsOfTheAges.pdf And as long as the public believes that up markets mean the elixir of capitalism is working and we are getting better and that down markets are only temporary, trite sayings will suffice. Human nature being what it is, I suppose we would rather seek "advice" that allows us see things the way we want them to be, rather than address how corporate and political corruption and unsustainable debt could impact our collective future. Friday, 08 January 2010 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FinancialLessonsOfTheAges.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PowerShift.pdf According to Jim Rickards, director of market intelligence for scientific consulting firm Omnis, the unannounced purpose of the G20 Summit in Pittsburgh on September 24 was that "the IMF is being anointed as the global central bank." Rickards said in a CNBC interview on September 25 that the plan is for the IMF to issue a global reserve currency that can replace the dollar. Wednesday, 28 October 2009 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PowerShift.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/Jerusalem.CityattheCrossroadsofHistory.10.26.09.pdf Regardless of your religious beliefs, the lessons from this historical account of Jerusalem - which does not even scratch the surface of all that is written on this city - should prove pertinent to the events surrounding the Israeli - Palestinian peace talks in 2009, which involves many of today's leaders. In the end, I hope this presentation will increase your understanding of our world - today, and in the years to come. Friday, 02 October 2009 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/Jerusalem.CityattheCrossroadsofHistory.10.26.09.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PleaseDontWakeMe.pdf So, why do so many investors and advisors still pretend as though the central banking boys and Wall Street have no clue as to what causes inflation - whether in supermarket or financial market prices - or as to the fact that all bubbles pop? Didn't these geniuses understand that the downside to allowing easy credit is the eventual collapse of credit in the private sector? Hasn't this scenario been played out again and again, long before this generation of leaders came around? Wednesday, 02 September 2009 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/PleaseDontWakeMe.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhoseLineOfCreditIsItAnyway.pdf Would that California were privileged as a bank. Then our federal government would give it multiple times its $26 billion need. If it were JPMorgan, it would have received $138 billion. If it were Bank of America, it would have received $118 billion. If it were Citibank, it would have received $300 billion. If it were AIG, it would have received $150 billion. While states and automakers plead for much smaller bailouts, banks look to have a blank check. Friday, 10 July 2009 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhoseLineOfCreditIsItAnyway.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GreatestDeficitOfAll.pdf In the movie, I.O.U.S.A, David Walker points out four different deficits that the United States faces today: the first is the budget deficit; second, is the savings deficit; third, is the balance of payments deficit, with a subset being the trade deficit; and the fourth, which Walker thinks is one of the most important, is a leadership deficit. When I talked to you, you said, "Well, I think it's even deeper than a leadership deficit; it is a moral deficit." Monday, 24 October 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GreatestDeficitOfAll.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TimesUp.pdf While I could summarize the myriads of lessons we have brought to readers over the last 4 years, it may be more effective to examine the events that led up to the Crash of 1987, since a similar event is now unfolding. Wednesday, 15 October 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TimesUp.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ADayofRest.pdf On Tuesday, the US government stated that in order to "stabilize" the markets, they would be provide an $85 billion loan to the largest insurance company in the world (AIG), the "collateral" being an 80 percent stake in the company. With the SEC (US) and the FSA (UK) temporarily suspending short sales of financial companies, it looks like the boys at the Treasury and Fed demanded that they do their patriotic duty to remove the thorns and thistles that had grown up to curse the "innocent" financial companies, who, I'm sure, gave investors no practical reason to want to sell their stocks. Friday, 19 September 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ADayofRest.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheSecretToRetirement.pdf In today's world, it is common to place individuals in one of two camps. On the one hand, we see ourselves as "bottom line thinkers," who, for various reasons, cannot understand the big picture, while on the other hand, those who delve into philosophical ideas that impact the whole society, are seen as in absent minded professors who can't get their heads out of the clouds. But, if we defer our God given ability to use our own minds to the "wisdom of the experts" or "social engineers," should we expect our personal plans to remain unaltered? For my fifty years, I cannot think of a more profound and practical time than today for the average person to engage in such discussions. Monday, 25 August 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheSecretToRetirement.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProtectingGiantsfromSlingShots.pdf Description - What should be obvious to anyone at this stage is that while the SEC has always had an obligation to clean up naked short selling . and I support orderly markets which must punish illegal activity . a more pertinent issue remains. We are all watching a credit crisis, and that crisis was fueled, at the root level, by the very players who today demand special privileges from our market regulators and government leaders. Friday, 18 July 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProtectingGiantsfromSlingShots.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheDayFreeMarketsDied.pdf Though our government has increasingly influenced our markets since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, we have recently reached the point where it would be a glaringly obvious misnomer to call the markets "free." And while some aspects of a free market remain, those who've studied the day-to-day operations of our nation's banking system and the stock markets' performances at certain times, would likely come to the conclusion that, on occasion, the state, through the Fed and certain banks, intervenes to engineer market bottoms. Tuesday, 20 May 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheDayFreeMarketsDied.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FourCriticalQuestions.pdf We are wired in such a way that the only warnings we are inclined to act upon are those that will help us avoid things we have personally experienced. One could even say, "The only things that are real to us are those that we have experienced." And that's the point: the only thing most New Orleans' residents had experienced were dire warnings and minimal consequences. All because it had never happened to them before. Thursday, 06 Mar 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FourCriticalQuestions.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LeveesBreaking.pdf As market volatility picks up, the world's capital market begin to look less like investing and more like a casino. If you want to survive the markets ahead, I strongly encourage you to seek those sources that have a keen grasp of history, math, and crowd and individual psychology. Then, make sure that they have experience trading the short side of markets and can give you very well thought out plans about how they are going to deal with the real world that is unfolding in front of us. Thursday, 17 Jan 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LeveesBreaking.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/UsualSuspects.pdf If we see something one time, and extrapolate that the conclusion will always be the same, we stand a high chance of failure. But, if we watch multiple occurrences of similar patterns unfolding over months, quarters, and years - sometimes fast, sometimes slow - with different degrees of force and destruction, across different nationalities, cultures, and time periods, then those who ignore such data, do so to their own detriment. Wednesday, 12 Dec 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/UsualSuspects.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/BestMindsInc.int.JerryFlum.CreditRiskMonitor.11.19.07 This is a 22 minute sound file interview covering a variety of reasons that investors should be aware of how this accounting change will impact ever investor in our markets. Jerry began his career as a security analyst in 1968, and started his own hedge fund in 1972. He talks about why critical thinking and constant due diligence is critical for investment survival as the uncovering of massive layers of risk continue to come to the surface. Today, Credit Risk Monitor evaluates credit risk on more than 35,000 companies around the globe. Monday, 19 Nov 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/BestMindsInc.int.JerryFlum.CreditRiskMonitor.11.19.07 Doug Wakefield, Best Minds Inc.interviews Jerry Flum, CEO of Credit Risk Monitor http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GalleryCrowdBehavior.pdf Pictures showing that, 'Until we understand our human tendency is to extrapolate the past, and embrace stories that support our feelings of a current trend, we will fail to search beyond our feelings and passionately seek for signs of the END of a current trend.' Friday, 02 Nov 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GalleryCrowdBehavior.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FearAndPerceptions.pdf Those who are sure that human psychology and crowd behavior is different this time, and that the 'dollar will only go down and most other investments will only go up,' should be asking, 'what happens after the dollar collapses?' Because of the dollar decline of the last few years, we have come to believe in a linear narrative of a 'dollar collapse.' But, a study of history reveals cycles, forcing us to ask, 'what will happen when this trend changes?' Thursday, 01 Nov 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FearAndPerceptions.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TVRerunsvs.RealManias.pdf Gold recently hit a bullish consensus reading of 90. The last time investors were this bullish on gold was May of 2006, when gold hit a bullish consensus of 92. Its price then fell from $730 to $542 in four weeks. In September of this year bullish consensus on the dollar hit 20, and bullish consensus on the Euro reached 93. Again, the last time these consensus readings were at similar levels was in May of 2006. With most people bearish on the US dollar and bullish on the Euro, the US dollar hit a bullish consensus of 35 and the Euro came in at 69. Over the next four weeks, the US dollar climbed from 83.06 to 87.05, and the Euro declined from 129.74 to 124.81. Tuesday, 09 Oct 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TVRerunsvs.RealManias.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhatLiesBeneath.pdf After so many years of depending on inflation and bailing out the ever-present 'current liquidity crisis,' we've now reached the point where it's too painful to continue and will be too painful to stop. Is it any wonder that most would rather have someone in leadership 'manage it,' rather than honestly tell us what takes place in our financial system? Thursday, 06 Sept 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhatLiesBeneath.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LetTheBuyerBeware.pdf The recent reaction of various equity markets should have come as no surprise. Yet, since the major equity indices have been disconnected from reality for sometime, many were likely caught off guard. Still, those who took note of the weakening trend in the brokerage or banking sectors over the last few months would have known that when this is the case and the headlines read, "Dow at All Time High," something is indeed wrong. Friday, 27 Jul 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LetTheBuyerBeware.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/EdNEarl.pdf This fictitious conversation between two investment advisors points out and pokes fun at how our fast-paced, specialist-oriented, self-focused lives have lead us to a point where we view the world as a random collection of dots and noise and never consider how real world events interrelate with real financial and investment decisions. Thursday, 14 Jun 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/EdNEarl.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GoingBallistic.pdf Since the middle of 2005, Shanghai Stock Exchange's annualized rate of growth has increased from 70 to 291 to 526 percent! Clearly, unsustainable. And though its growth is dwarfed by the Shanghai, the S&P500's annualized growth rate has gone from 14.5 to 34 to 74 percent annually. Sustainable? We think not. Wednesday, 23 May 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GoingBallistic.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/DollarsAtWill.pdf The government's assets certainly are not in the process of being forcibly liquidated by creditors. For that matter, the notion of a formal bankruptcy process mediated by an outside party appears unrealistic, as well. After all, the vast majority of U.S. government's liabilities to foreigners are denominated in U.S. dollars, which can be supplied virtually at will. Thrusday, 19 Apr 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/DollarsAtWill.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhoWouldBelieve.pdf On February 20th, 2007, the Dow closed at an all time high of 12,786. One week later, the Dow saw its worst one-day loss in 7 years (outside of 9/11). So, was February 27th a worldwide wakeup call for investors or just one more bump on the road to higher markets? While we wait to see what happens, we must contend with the fact that, collectively, we have a poor track record of foreseeing substantial changes in the future Wed, 14 Mar 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhoWouldBelieve.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/IfItWorksItIsTrue.pdf The VIX is at a 17-year low. In the meantime, the situation surrounding Iran is heating up and we have received warnings from the BIS and the IMF. Investors forget that the DJIA lost 30 percent in just 4 months in 2002. Caution is warranted. Wed, 07 Feb 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/IfItWorksItIsTrue.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/AMindIsATerribleThingtoWaste.pdf One thing fascinates me most when it comes to the dynamics of all human relationships. I may hear what you are telling me, and come to an understanding that what you are telling me is true, but because it scares me and/or frustrates me, I am going to react to those ideas emotionally, rather than join you in a thinking process. It is not that I cannot understand, but that I am afraid your conclusions could be correct, and I would have to contend with the very real probability that my daily world is going to undergo significant change. Thur, 11 Jan 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/AMindIsATerribleThingtoWaste.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ZeroVisibility.pdf In many ways, navigating the markets is like landing a plane on a foggy day. Intuition tells us one thing, but the markets react in the polar opposite direction. Over time, many come to believe that the market is just too complex, and that the safest thing to do is to follow the traditional advice espoused by most individuals. But is this the way that professional traders make decisions, or do they exhibit patterns similar to the thought processes of a professional pilot? Wed, 06 Dec 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ZeroVisibility.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooMuchOfAGoodThing.pdf Former Fed Head Alan Greenspan, unable to detect (much less diffuse) a bubble before it pops, believes that abundant liquidity is the answer to many a problem. However, the FDIC and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) point the the averse affects a housing bubble can have as the credit cycle moves from its expansionary to its contractionary phase. Mon, 13 Nov 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooMuchOfAGoodThing.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ALieYouveGottoRiseAbove.Proceed2.pdf The DJIA is definitely at a new high; that is, unless you measure it agianst the money supply. Though the Fed doesn't judge the M3 to be worth the cost of production, we still see the usefullness of information such as this, especially when it comes to dispelling the distortions that uncontrolled credit creation causes. http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ALieYouveGottoRiseAbove.Proceed2.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BadRap.CFAmag.c.9-10.06.pdf The article appeared in the September-October issue of the CFA Magazine and addresses the topic of short selling. Doug Wakefield of Best Minds Inc is quoted for his knowledge on short selling and his industry research paper, Riders on the Storm: Short Selling in Contrary Winds. While the article addresses the bad rap that short sellers have taken, it also deals with the ugly side of short selling - naked short selling. John Finnerty of Finnerty Economic Consulting and professor of finance at Fordham University, describes the difference very clearly: "We need to make the distinction between legal short selling and illegal manipulation [naked short selling] so we don't throw the baby our with the bath water." http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BadRap.CFAmag.c.9-10.06.pdf Nancy Opiela, CFA Institue http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProceedToTheNearestExit.Pt1_000.pdf So why would analysts issue so many buy and hold recommendations and so few sell recommendations while industry insiders flee their own companies' stocks? Two words…Investment Banking Wed, 13 Sept 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProceedToTheNearestExit.Pt1_000.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ClimbingOrDescending.pdf Market rallies show us that investors, professional and retail, continue to cling to a bull market mindset, embracing the emotional high of each rally, somehow missing the overall downward trend of the markets, and discounting or disregarding the fundamental facts of the underlying economy. >Wed, 16 Aug 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ClimbingOrDescending.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.safehaven.com/article-5565.htm Many media pundits tell us that the markets may be down for the moment, but that we shouldn't worry or be bothered by bearish arguments, because the markets are just consolidating before the next move up. We are referred back to information about how stocks offer high returns and low risk over the long run. We are told that stocks have always won out through thick and thin and that if we will just stick to our plan and dollar cost average and buy the dips, we will be well on our way to financial independence. And, of course, all this is nothing new. In 1999, Dow 36,000, written by James Glassman and Dr. Kevin Hassett, proposed that the Dow was at the beginning of a great bull market while Dr. Robert Schiller’s book, Irrational Exuberance, suggested that the Dow was at the top of a mania, which would end with serious economic consequences. To be sure, the writers of these books were no slouches. Yet, ultimately, ignorance of the historical record proved very costly. Tue, 18 Jul 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.safehaven.com/article-5565.htm Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.safehaven.com/article-4922.htm Saturday night live brings home with painful irony how our "buy now, pay later" culture has lost its bearings. The skit contains three characters – the husband, the wife, and a credit counselor who is seeking to help the couple understand that concepts in his "book", Don’t Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford. Over the course of the article we introduce how painful debt has become to our society through a day in the life of "Bob and Sally Smith." In this piece, we point out the various warning signals indicating a need to head for the exits. Fri, 07 Apr 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.safehaven.com/article-4922.htm Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill