http://www.bestmindsinc.com/ Best Minds Inc. Copyright 2006 Best Minds Inc. en-us Fri, 20 Apr 2007 14:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProtectingGiantsfromSlingShots.pdf Description - What should be obvious to anyone at this stage is that while the SEC has always had an obligation to clean up naked short selling . and I support orderly markets which must punish illegal activity . a more pertinent issue remains. We are all watching a credit crisis, and that crisis was fueled, at the root level, by the very players who today demand special privileges from our market regulators and government leaders. Friday, 18 July 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProtectingGiantsfromSlingShots.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheDayFreeMarketsDied.pdf Though our government has increasingly influenced our markets since the creation of the Federal Reserve in 1913, we have recently reached the point where it would be a glaringly obvious misnomer to call the markets "free." And while some aspects of a free market remain, those who've studied the day-to-day operations of our nation's banking system and the stock markets' performances at certain times, would likely come to the conclusion that, on occasion, the state, through the Fed and certain banks, intervenes to engineer market bottoms. Tuesday, 20 May 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TheDayFreeMarketsDied.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FourCriticalQuestions.pdf We are wired in such a way that the only warnings we are inclined to act upon are those that will help us avoid things we have personally experienced. One could even say, "The only things that are real to us are those that we have experienced." And that's the point: the only thing most New Orleans' residents had experienced were dire warnings and minimal consequences. All because it had never happened to them before. Thursday, 06 Mar 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FourCriticalQuestions.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LeveesBreaking.pdf As market volatility picks up, the world's capital market begin to look less like investing and more like a casino. If you want to survive the markets ahead, I strongly encourage you to seek those sources that have a keen grasp of history, math, and crowd and individual psychology. Then, make sure that they have experience trading the short side of markets and can give you very well thought out plans about how they are going to deal with the real world that is unfolding in front of us. Thursday, 17 Jan 2008 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LeveesBreaking.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/UsualSuspects.pdf If we see something one time, and extrapolate that the conclusion will always be the same, we stand a high chance of failure. But, if we watch multiple occurrences of similar patterns unfolding over months, quarters, and years - sometimes fast, sometimes slow - with different degrees of force and destruction, across different nationalities, cultures, and time periods, then those who ignore such data, do so to their own detriment. Wednesday, 12 Dec 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/UsualSuspects.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/BestMindsInc.int.JerryFlum.CreditRiskMonitor.11.19.07 This is a 22 minute sound file interview covering a variety of reasons that investors should be aware of how this accounting change will impact ever investor in our markets. Jerry began his career as a security analyst in 1968, and started his own hedge fund in 1972. He talks about why critical thinking and constant due diligence is critical for investment survival as the uncovering of massive layers of risk continue to come to the surface. Today, Credit Risk Monitor evaluates credit risk on more than 35,000 companies around the globe. Monday, 19 Nov 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/BestMindsInc.int.JerryFlum.CreditRiskMonitor.11.19.07 Doug Wakefield, Best Minds Inc.interviews Jerry Flum, CEO of Credit Risk Monitor http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GalleryCrowdBehavior.pdf Pictures showing that, 'Until we understand our human tendency is to extrapolate the past, and embrace stories that support our feelings of a current trend, we will fail to search beyond our feelings and passionately seek for signs of the END of a current trend.' Friday, 02 Nov 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GalleryCrowdBehavior.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FearAndPerceptions.pdf Those who are sure that human psychology and crowd behavior is different this time, and that the 'dollar will only go down and most other investments will only go up,' should be asking, 'what happens after the dollar collapses?' Because of the dollar decline of the last few years, we have come to believe in a linear narrative of a 'dollar collapse.' But, a study of history reveals cycles, forcing us to ask, 'what will happen when this trend changes?' Thursday, 01 Nov 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/FearAndPerceptions.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TVRerunsvs.RealManias.pdf Gold recently hit a bullish consensus reading of 90. The last time investors were this bullish on gold was May of 2006, when gold hit a bullish consensus of 92. Its price then fell from $730 to $542 in four weeks. In September of this year bullish consensus on the dollar hit 20, and bullish consensus on the Euro reached 93. Again, the last time these consensus readings were at similar levels was in May of 2006. With most people bearish on the US dollar and bullish on the Euro, the US dollar hit a bullish consensus of 35 and the Euro came in at 69. Over the next four weeks, the US dollar climbed from 83.06 to 87.05, and the Euro declined from 129.74 to 124.81. Tuesday, 09 Oct 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TVRerunsvs.RealManias.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhatLiesBeneath.pdf After so many years of depending on inflation and bailing out the ever-present 'current liquidity crisis,' we've now reached the point where it's too painful to continue and will be too painful to stop. Is it any wonder that most would rather have someone in leadership 'manage it,' rather than honestly tell us what takes place in our financial system? Thursday, 06 Sept 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhatLiesBeneath.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LetTheBuyerBeware.pdf The recent reaction of various equity markets should have come as no surprise. Yet, since the major equity indices have been disconnected from reality for sometime, many were likely caught off guard. Still, those who took note of the weakening trend in the brokerage or banking sectors over the last few months would have known that when this is the case and the headlines read, "Dow at All Time High," something is indeed wrong. Friday, 27 Jul 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/LetTheBuyerBeware.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/EdNEarl.pdf This fictitious conversation between two investment advisors points out and pokes fun at how our fast-paced, specialist-oriented, self-focused lives have lead us to a point where we view the world as a random collection of dots and noise and never consider how real world events interrelate with real financial and investment decisions. Thursday, 14 Jun 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/EdNEarl.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GoingBallistic.pdf Since the middle of 2005, Shanghai Stock Exchange's annualized rate of growth has increased from 70 to 291 to 526 percent! Clearly, unsustainable. And though its growth is dwarfed by the Shanghai, the S&P500's annualized growth rate has gone from 14.5 to 34 to 74 percent annually. Sustainable? We think not. Wednesday, 23 May 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/GoingBallistic.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/DollarsAtWill.pdf The government's assets certainly are not in the process of being forcibly liquidated by creditors. For that matter, the notion of a formal bankruptcy process mediated by an outside party appears unrealistic, as well. After all, the vast majority of U.S. government's liabilities to foreigners are denominated in U.S. dollars, which can be supplied virtually at will. Thrusday, 19 Apr 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/DollarsAtWill.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhoWouldBelieve.pdf On February 20th, 2007, the Dow closed at an all time high of 12,786. One week later, the Dow saw its worst one-day loss in 7 years (outside of 9/11). So, was February 27th a worldwide wakeup call for investors or just one more bump on the road to higher markets? While we wait to see what happens, we must contend with the fact that, collectively, we have a poor track record of foreseeing substantial changes in the future Wed, 14 Mar 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/WhoWouldBelieve.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/IfItWorksItIsTrue.pdf The VIX is at a 17-year low. In the meantime, the situation surrounding Iran is heating up and we have received warnings from the BIS and the IMF. Investors forget that the DJIA lost 30 percent in just 4 months in 2002. Caution is warranted. Wed, 07 Feb 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/IfItWorksItIsTrue.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/AMindIsATerribleThingtoWaste.pdf One thing fascinates me most when it comes to the dynamics of all human relationships. I may hear what you are telling me, and come to an understanding that what you are telling me is true, but because it scares me and/or frustrates me, I am going to react to those ideas emotionally, rather than join you in a thinking process. It is not that I cannot understand, but that I am afraid your conclusions could be correct, and I would have to contend with the very real probability that my daily world is going to undergo significant change. Thur, 11 Jan 2007 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/AMindIsATerribleThingtoWaste.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ZeroVisibility.pdf In many ways, navigating the markets is like landing a plane on a foggy day. Intuition tells us one thing, but the markets react in the polar opposite direction. Over time, many come to believe that the market is just too complex, and that the safest thing to do is to follow the traditional advice espoused by most individuals. But is this the way that professional traders make decisions, or do they exhibit patterns similar to the thought processes of a professional pilot? Wed, 06 Dec 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ZeroVisibility.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooMuchOfAGoodThing.pdf Former Fed Head Alan Greenspan, unable to detect (much less diffuse) a bubble before it pops, believes that abundant liquidity is the answer to many a problem. However, the FDIC and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) point the the averse affects a housing bubble can have as the credit cycle moves from its expansionary to its contractionary phase. Mon, 13 Nov 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/TooMuchOfAGoodThing.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ALieYouveGottoRiseAbove.Proceed2.pdf The DJIA is definitely at a new high; that is, unless you measure it agianst the money supply. Though the Fed doesn't judge the M3 to be worth the cost of production, we still see the usefullness of information such as this, especially when it comes to dispelling the distortions that uncontrolled credit creation causes. http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ALieYouveGottoRiseAbove.Proceed2.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BadRap.CFAmag.c.9-10.06.pdf The article appeared in the September-October issue of the CFA Magazine and addresses the topic of short selling. Doug Wakefield of Best Minds Inc is quoted for his knowledge on short selling and his industry research paper, Riders on the Storm: Short Selling in Contrary Winds. While the article addresses the bad rap that short sellers have taken, it also deals with the ugly side of short selling - naked short selling. John Finnerty of Finnerty Economic Consulting and professor of finance at Fordham University, describes the difference very clearly: "We need to make the distinction between legal short selling and illegal manipulation [naked short selling] so we don't throw the baby our with the bath water." http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/BadRap.CFAmag.c.9-10.06.pdf Nancy Opiela, CFA Institue http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProceedToTheNearestExit.Pt1_000.pdf So why would analysts issue so many buy and hold recommendations and so few sell recommendations while industry insiders flee their own companies' stocks? Two words…Investment Banking Wed, 13 Sept 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ProceedToTheNearestExit.Pt1_000.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ClimbingOrDescending.pdf Market rallies show us that investors, professional and retail, continue to cling to a bull market mindset, embracing the emotional high of each rally, somehow missing the overall downward trend of the markets, and discounting or disregarding the fundamental facts of the underlying economy. >Wed, 16 Aug 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.bestmindsinc.com/documents/ClimbingOrDescending.pdf Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.safehaven.com/article-5565.htm Many media pundits tell us that the markets may be down for the moment, but that we shouldn't worry or be bothered by bearish arguments, because the markets are just consolidating before the next move up. We are referred back to information about how stocks offer high returns and low risk over the long run. We are told that stocks have always won out through thick and thin and that if we will just stick to our plan and dollar cost average and buy the dips, we will be well on our way to financial independence. And, of course, all this is nothing new. In 1999, Dow 36,000, written by James Glassman and Dr. Kevin Hassett, proposed that the Dow was at the beginning of a great bull market while Dr. Robert Schiller’s book, Irrational Exuberance, suggested that the Dow was at the top of a mania, which would end with serious economic consequences. To be sure, the writers of these books were no slouches. Yet, ultimately, ignorance of the historical record proved very costly. Tue, 18 Jul 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.safehaven.com/article-5565.htm Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill http://www.safehaven.com/article-4922.htm Saturday night live brings home with painful irony how our "buy now, pay later" culture has lost its bearings. The skit contains three characters – the husband, the wife, and a credit counselor who is seeking to help the couple understand that concepts in his "book", Don’t Buy Stuff You Cannot Afford. Over the course of the article we introduce how painful debt has become to our society through a day in the life of "Bob and Sally Smith." In this piece, we point out the various warning signals indicating a need to head for the exits. Fri, 07 Apr 2006 12:00:00 EDT http://www.safehaven.com/article-4922.htm Doug Wakefield with Ben Hill