As July 2007 opened, banks and brokerage houses came under increasing pressure,

which I took as a signal that the historic worldwide credit bubble was coming to an end.

In light of the mounting signs of a credit contraction, on July 19th I sent an issue of The

Investor’s Mind titled, “What Is & What Should Never Be,” with the following note to both

our free and paid subscribers:

“Evidence is mounting that we are in the final throes of this worldwide,

credit-fueled bubble. The wobbling dominoes certainly merit the attention

of all investors and advisors.”

While we have seen, and will no doubt continue to see, enormous efforts to try to change

the course of where we are headed, the depletion of half of the Federal Reserve's book

of Treasuries and the severe contractions in the Asset Backed and Structured Invest-

ment Vehicle markets, indicate a change of major significance is at hand.Those who are

only mindful of the major equity index prices or the Fed's decision to lower rates, overlook

the credit crunch occuring within the institutions that fund many of our market operations

and a large part of our economy. Those who deny the systemic risks within our capital

markets and lean instead on central banker's ability to add "liquidity" will soon be forced

to acknowledge what happens when collectively, individuals move away from embracing

debt, to attitudes and actions that seek to REDUCE their exposure to debt, especially

higher risk debt instruments. As investors begin to realize that many complex, exoctic

financial products do not merit the rating they have been given, and that the growth rates

of the same are unsustainable, fear and distrust will replace greed and apathy and, in the

process,will correct such excesses. An obsession with past performance, devoid of

concern for the underlying drivers, is inherent to human nature during secular bull

markets. But if we want to be well-prepared, we must ask, "How have my investements

performed since the credit contraction began, in July 2007, and how should my overall

investment strategy perform in a long-term credit contraction?"

In light of this, I encourage you to consider joining the group of subscribers, who are not

only readers, but are part of The Investor’s Mind. Our subscribers include hedge fund

and institutional managers, retired industry insiders, business owners, and professors,

as well as retail investors from various countries around the world. Why do they sub-

scribe? In short, to gain a better understanding in this period of extraordinary change and

to better navigate the most challenging investment environment any of us have ever seen.

Every investor, manager, trader, business leader, and politician will be forced to deal with

issues that the credit expansion allowed us to deny or at least put off for a “rainy day.”

If you would like to get a taste of The Investor’s Mind before you sign up for a six-month

subscription, scroll down this page to Recent Updates and click on the links under our

latest public article. If you examine the range of subjects covered in

The Investor’s Mind: Anticipating Trends through Lens of History, and Riders on The

Storm: Short Selling in Contrary Winds, you will see that this is not the typical investment

newsletter. If you are convinced that something significant is taking place, I would

encourage you subscribe to The Investoor's Mind. As the aforementioned issues take

their tool on global markets in the months ahead, there will be plenty to think through

if we are to keep ourselves from being swept away along with the crowd.

As each of us assesses our ability to successfully navigate today's markets, consider

Edward Chancellor's words from his book, Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of

Financial Speculation, published in 1999.

       "According to the financial journalist Alexander Dana Noyes, the American stock

        market boom at the beginning of the twentieth century was 'as much a social and

        psychological phenomenon as a financial episode.' "

Since the credit contraction began, in the summer of 2007, our national leaders have

only presented one solution to the public: more government, more spending, and more

debt. At the same time, the general public has shifted towards spending less and

lowering their debts. As any child can see, thesee themes are simply not compatible.

Understanding what is unfolding, is not the challenge. With a little bit of study, it is easy

to assemble how we arrived at this destination in history. The challenge is to have

enough courage to look at difficult scenarios, act accordingly, and deal with the distor-

tions thrown at our thinking and markets as the contraction gains strength.

Read More...

The Next Landslide: Lessons from Andrew Carnegie, May 29 '09, Doud Wakefield

with Ben Hill

So with the hundreds of millions the world’s leaders continue to spend in economic and

financial stimulus to try to make the debt-addicted take on more debt, the answer is

simple: it is wrong. Carnegie knew it more than 120 years ago, and Koo made it plain

from Japan’s recent monetary history. Koo makes it quite clear that when the crowd,

individually, locally, or nationally, decides that taking on too much debt was never in their

best interest in the first place, handing out toasters and other enticements to take out

new loans will not work.

We are Driven - Taken for the Ride of Our Life, March 27 '09, Doug Wakefield

and Ben Hill

Equity markets worldwide have climbed sharply over the last 3 weeks. While we

have grown accustomed to the "print money to fix it" solution, the events surrounding

the IMF the up coming G20 meeting and calls for an international currency, appear to

be setting up countries around the globe as never before in history. Were these ideas,

some dating back to 1945, the major contributor to worldwide rallies over the last few

weeks? Do most investors really understand the ramification of these historic shifts at

the root level of global finance?

The Big, the Bull, and the Bankers, December 18, 2008, Doug Wakefield w/ Ben Hill

If an individual had followed the movements of the four leading currencies since

the beginning of December, the price and yield movements of the 30 year Treasury Bond

since the credit contraction started in the summer of 2007, and the banking index over

the last 90 days, what patterns would start to emerge. What if these patterns matched

ones from the 1920s, and it was mixed with the end of an option expiration week, and

the most bullish treasury bond reading on record? Friday, December 19th, has all the

markings of an historical juncture in global capital markets.