I remember reading an article in 2018 by John Rubino of Dollar Collapse.com stating that when examining US stock markets, we had now seen the longest bull markets in history.
To be at the end of 2024, it would seem as though stocks will ALWAYS rise. In fact, from the major low in March 2009, I have never seen a decline in US stocks that lasted more than 6 weeks, and that includes the COVID global shutdown.
While we will not go through the many “helps” the Federal Reserve has used since 2009 to inflate assets, one of the trading patterns I have seen very helpful is the CNN Fear and Greed Index and major moving averages. These have proved illusive when trying to find a top or turn lower, but they have been helpful when finding buyers (computers) seeking a buy back trading level.
Today, I am only talking about the near term. As we get past January 20th we will examine the larger picture. For now, the CNN Fear and Greed Index and the moving averages are proving helpful in this “all time highs are forever” world we find ourselves living in.
US Stocks
First, we start with the Fed’s 3rd rate cut on Wednesday.
Dow plummets 1,100 points after Fed scales back plans for interest rate cuts, ABC News, Dec 19, 2024
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 1,100 points, or 2.5%, the largest drop for the index since August. The dip marked the 10th consecutive day of losses for the Dow, its longest losing streak since 1974.
[Modified chart from my November 12th post]
At the end of Wednesday, the outlier of a 1100 drop wakes up everyone. The panic is across gold, bonds, stocks, and cryptos. What next?!
The waters start to calm, but the turbulence could take us lower to the 100-day levels in the major US stock indices.
On Thursday, I saw the CNN Fear and Greed Index reach 20 before closing at 22 for the day. As we can see from the meter above, this is extreme fear.
At the close of the week, 6 of the 7 indicators were at fear or extreme fear. The other one was at neutral.
If you are acting as a contrarian, these technical tools support a rally into year end. Once again, it will be interesting to see how things move after January 20th when Trump is sworn for his second term. He is certainly being seen as a positive for business.
Boost for US Economy! Trump, Softbank account $100 billion investment plan – Here’s what we know, Financial Express, Dec 16 ‘24
Small business optimism surges to highest level in three years: NFIB/ CEOs at the largest U.S. companies also see good times ahead, according to the Business Roundtable, CEO Dive, Dec 10, 2024
Bitcoin, Gold and Silver
The Eternal Treasure Forecasted Centuries Before
I work with a group of youth every week discussing the most sold and translated book in human history, the Bible. I am giving you a copy of a game they played this December. Match the theme with the writings in the New Testament with the writings centuries before in the Old Testament about that same theme. Check it out.
May you and your loved ones have a wonderful Christmas.
As always, if you have a question or would like to make a comment, please post it below. You can also respond by using the group email that alerted you to this post.
As always, please share with others if you find this of value. Thanks.
Disclaimer: Best Minds Inc was closed in 2018. I am retired. Nothing I am writing should be taken as advice to buy or sell any form of security or asset. Everyone must study and consider their own situation before putting money anywhere, as well as understand they are living in a time where major changes at the highest levels of money are taking place. These writings are free.
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