Up, Plateau, Then...

As we close out February 2026, I want to shoot this out quickly. My hypothesis: the major US stock indices are very tired. Let's look at where we have been at the END of the last few months.

Look at these three major stock markets in the world. The NASDAQ is leading to the downside, followed by the S&P 500. The Dow is slowing. All are at the plateau stage or a little on the downside.

Now let's put these numbers into pictures.

Along with this data, I jump to the other side of the world and keep watching the Japanese markets. Their history since the 1990s and the last year have been very different. I am watching the 60,000 in conjunction with the US stock markets.

Finally, the VIX continues its ABC pattern with B forming a contracting wedge. We are waiting for the C wave to break out above the low 20s it has been stuck in this month.

While I can not and will not share my own positions, I will say that as of Wednesday this week, I made some significant changes in my portfolio to take a neutral stance. This was done by lowering the amount of stocks and ETFS and increasing the amount of cash and inverse funds. Once again, this is NOT advice for you, since you must make your own decisions. However, because of the gravity of what we are watching, I wanted to share some of this with you to discuss with your own advisors and consider.

As always, questions or comments are welcome.

Disclaimer: Best Minds Inc was closed in 2018. I am retired. Nothing I am writing should be taken as advice to buy or sell any form of security or asset. Everyone must study and consider their own situation before putting money anywhere, as well as understand that they are living in a time where major changes at the highest levels of money are taking place. These writings are free.