We start first with silver, since it has been the hottest story to talk about. As you can see, in just 7 days of trading, it lost almost 50%. To continue at this pace, it could reach the $50 level next week.

But as Friday revealed, when it does hit a bottom, money looking at the longer term could pile in, thus a sharp rally.

JP Morgan and Goldman certainly seem to think that going lower would only be short lived.

JPMorgan analysts projected a silver floor between $75 and $80 per ounce this year, arguing the metal remains unlikely to surrender all recent gains. Goldman Sachs echoed caution but acknowledged that tight supply continues to magnify price moves. 

It is also interesting to note that silver has an enormous reach over global industry. Check this out. [Silver in Industry: The Silver Institute.org]

While silver could go lower, we can see that it bounced twice this week to close above its 50-day moving average and in the 70s. If it continues lower, it could reach its 100 day or 200 day moving average in the next few weeks. However, as we have seen, one market is not solely driven by its own price action.

This week, we also saw a rise in the US dollar, yet the trend since the start of 2025 has been down or sideways.

When we consider the rise in yields and interest rates since 2020 from “lowest in history” levels, and the plunge in the price of 30-year US Treasuries which fueled this rise, the Super Bowl Sunday 50,000 record and the movement in silver and gold should be watched closely in the next few months.

Because we have been in a holding pattern for months in the major US equity markets, the breakout to 50,000 should bring in more money and push it higher for a while. However, if we close under this level and start breaking these shorter-term moving averages, this is a major alert across all markets, globally and US. It may not be a crash, but we are certainly overdue for a 20% correction in the equity markets.

Germany and Japan are also two other major markets to watch.  As I discussed in the Big Bad Bond Trend last September, these 2 major players in global markets are facing the same “all time high stocks/rising interest rates” theme as the U.S.

In the meantime, oil has certainly been sliding lower since 2022 and looks like a good possibility for a breakout this year.

Finally, with another extremely low and rare reading in the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index as Bitcoin reached 60,000 Friday, the pendulum should start moving the other direction in the weeks ahead. The only lower reading is the one in March 2020, a period we will all never forget. with a rating of 2.

More to talk about, but not today. Too many other tasks for my Saturday.

As always, questions or comments are always welcome.

Disclaimer: Best Minds Inc was closed in 2018. I am retired. Nothing I am writing should be taken as advice to buy or sell any form of security or asset. Everyone must study and consider their own situation before putting money anywhere, as well as understand that they are living in a time where major changes at the highest levels of money are taking place. These writings are free.