Navigating Extreme Fear, Rally Continues

On Thursday, November 20^th, we once again saw a signal digit number in the CNN Fear and Greed Index. It was time to for a bottom.

In the post, Temper Tantrum – ’20 vs ’25, the reading was 8 on April 3^rd. Its lowest reading was 3 five days later on April 8^th. The lowest reading on record was on March 12, 2020, a reading at 2.

As we can see from the chart above, last Thursday’s reading reached a low of 6. All 7 of the indicators were “extreme fear”.

Once again, the extreme oversold readings are providing stocks a breather from the sell side.

For Bitcoin and cryptos, this was a blood bath. However, we have just seen another “lowest reading” in the CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index, at 10. The reading back on April 8^th was 15. The same 15 reading was also on March 10^th .  

Because of these readings, we should see a rally in both stocks and cryptos through the end of the year. The Polymarket reading on a Federal Reserve rate cut of 25 basis points on December 10^th is strong at 86%, so this rate cut seems a given.

Of course, Bessent’s strategy of focusing on the short end of Treasury markets is certainly helping the Fed cut rates. But for how long? We are already in a bond bear market and this, after the Federal Reserve keep th Fed Funds rate at their lowest rates, 0.0% to 0.25%, from December 2008 to December 2015.

Bessent’s Treasury Bets Big on Bills, Shaking Bond Market, Procapitas.com, July 28, 2025

However, the pattern of the major moving averages on US stocks also played a role in the bounce from these “extreme fear” readings, thus the upward move up in US stock indices. You will notice all 3 of the major US stock indices found their floor at their 100-day moving average. As I have seen and written about several times since 2009, the computers continue to focus on the major moving averages.

I saw this article today while writing this post and found it also bullish, at least in the short term.

“Sell America” Is Over -Global Investors Are Sticking With US Treasurys, Investopedia, Nov 23 ‘25

Foreign investors poured more than $300 billion into U.S. assets in August and September, easing fears of a global Treasury selloff.

And yet, outside stocks and bonds, gold and silver have managed to stay above their 50-day moving averages through the last several weeks after hitting their all-time highs. Based on the long-term bond trends shown in my last piece, Big Bear Bond Trend, I believe these metals will continue their long-term trend as we come through 2026 and beyond. For now, I want to see what happens to the metals after the Fed announcement, and watch for a breakout in the weeks ahead from the current sideways pattern that started 5 weeks ago.

Even after strong rallies these last 3 days, the CNN Fear and Greed Index is still only at 16, extreme fear, with 5 of the 7 indices still at extreme fear. This is a good contrarian signal.  

Unless I see something outside the ordinary, I will probably not comment on markets until 2026. For now, the pendulum needs to take time to swing to neutral or greed.

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Happy Thanksgiving and have a wonderful Christmas.

Disclaimer: Best Minds Inc was closed in 2018. I am retired. Nothing I am writing should be taken as advice to buy or sell any form of security or asset. Everyone must study and consider their own situation before putting money anywhere, as well as understand that they are living in a time where major changes at the highest levels of money are taking place. These writings are free.